Theme 1: Natural Adaptation to Climate Change

Theme One is dedicated to forecasting the movement of species over time. This theme provides data for conservation agencies, farmers, and NGOs through two models.

Model 1a forecasts how different types of insects, plants, and animals are predicted to spread in the next 20-50 years, including natural adaptation and species variation in a given location. Model 1a seeks to answer questions such as:

1) Will oak trees be more susceptible to invasive pests in the future?
2) Where might birds shift in the future and how could this affect other species?

Model 1b simulates the yield of particular crops to projected increases in warming, drying, and fluctuating precipitation. Model 1b seeks to answer questions such as:

1) How will an increase in September warmth affect blueberry yields?
2) How would rising summer temperatures or effective drought affect pasture or blueberry yield? How much irrigation would this require to be mitigated?